ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Former President Donald Trump’s deliberate marketing campaign go to to Minnesota on Friday will mark his return…

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Former President Donald Trump’s deliberate marketing campaign go to to Minnesota on Friday will mark his return to a historically Democratic state that he has lengthy argued he may carry.

Trump will take a break from his hush money trial in New York to talk on the Minnesota GOP’s annual Lincoln Reagan fundraising dinner. Tickets begin at $500, ranging as much as $100,000 for a VIP desk for 10 with three picture alternatives with Trump. The dinner coincides with the social gathering’s state conference.

Trump’s new state marketing campaign chair is House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who’s supporting Trump regardless that the previous president and his allies had been instrumental in blocking Emmer’s attempt to change into speaker final fall.

It’s unclear whether or not the Trump marketing campaign will get any of the cash raised. The marketing campaign didn’t reply to an emailed request for remark, and Emmer declined an interview request. His co-host for the dinner, Republican Party of Minnesota Chairman David Hann, additionally didn’t reply.

Trump got here near taking Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes in 2016, when he fell 1.5 proportion factors in need of Hillary Clinton in a state that no Republican presidential candidate has gained since Richard Nixon in 1972. He returned to Minnesota several times in 2020, however Democrat Joe Biden beat him by greater than 7 proportion factors when he tried for a second time period.

Still, Trump continues to insist he can win in Minnesota. He made a similar boast Saturday at a rally in reliably Democratic New Jersey.

At a personal donor retreat in Florida on May 4, Trump marketing campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita mentioned the marketing campaign’s plans to expand its electoral map into Virginia and Minnesota, primarily based on the Trump group’s rising optimism that each states are inside attain.

“We have an actual alternative to develop the map right here,” LaCivita informed The Associated Press. “The Biden marketing campaign has spent tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars} on TV advertisements and of their ‘vaunted floor recreation’. And they don’t have anything to indicate for it.”

Trump appeared to falsely claim in an interview simply forward of Super Tuesday that he really gained Minnesota in 2020.

“Well, I assumed we gained it final time, I’ll be sincere,” he told KNSI Radio in St. Cloud. “And I feel we did win it.”

There’s no proof that there have been any severe irregularities within the 2020 election in Minnesota. A handful of challenges to the results failed.

Trump stated it didn’t make sense to him that no Republican presidential candidate has gained the state since 1972. “It’s not like, for my part, that blue,” he stated.

He later vowed: “We’re going to place a heavy transfer into Minnesota, I promise.”

Whether that’s a misdirection play or a severe effort to win there stays to be seen. Minnesota has an extended historical past of manufacturing liberal icons similar to Vice Presidents Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale and Sen. Paul Wellstone, however it’s additionally the state that shocked the world when it elected former professional wrestler Jesse Ventura as governor in 1998.

Experts are cut up on whether or not Minnesota actually shall be aggressive this time. Some say the economic system stays a Biden vulnerability regardless of low unemployment and rising client confidence. The state’s unemployment fee is 2.7%, nicely beneath the nationwide jobless fee of three.8%, thanks to strong job and labor force growth, with wage development outpacing inflation, in response to state officers.

University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs stated that whereas 2020 was a very good yr for Biden in Minnesota, he’s unsure the president shall be so nicely positioned this time.

“It seems to me like Minnesota is in play,” he stated. “And if Minnesota is in play, Trump’s funding of money and time make sense.”

It’s not an ideal yr to be an incumbent, Jacobs stated. And whereas there was significant enchancment within the economic system, inflation continues to hamper the president.

“It may drive Biden to maneuver cash out of states he thinks he may take from Trump,” he stated, “and he may all the time course-correct come fall.”

But Steve Schier, professor emeritus of political science at Carleton College, stated Minnesota’s voting historical past leaves him skeptical, although he thinks the race might be shut there.

“We’ve seen this film earlier than. In 2020 and 2016 it seemed as if a Republican had an opportunity of carrying Minnesota, and it didn’t occur,” Schier stated.

Ken Martin, chairman of what’s formally known as the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, stated the state has been a battleground for a while. He thinks it’s extra of a purple state than a deep blue state.

“It’s not stunning that Donald Trump would suppose he has an opportunity right here,” Martin stated. “But in a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, I feel he’ll lose.”

While Republican power has grown throughout rural Minnesota lately, that’s been offset by Democratic power in city areas and the shift of suburban voters towards Democrats that accelerated after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v Wade. While it’s true that no Republican has gained statewide workplace in Minnesota since 2006, when Tim Pawlenty was reelected governor, it’s additionally true that Democrats maintain solely slender majorities within the Legislature, and the state’s congressional delegation is cut up 4-4.

Trump’s marketing campaign hasn’t had a visual floor presence in Minnesota this cycle, whereas the Biden marketing campaign has enlisted skilled operatives to guide the state effort. The president’s group in latest months additionally has despatched a number of surrogates, together with first girl Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff.

Biden ought to be capable of leverage the well-oiled turnout and fundraising machine of the state Democratic Party, In distinction, the Minnesota GOP has struggled for years with debt, leadership turnover and factional disputes.

Minnesota Democrats had an enormous yr in 2022, capitalizing on voter concern about abortion rights to reelect Gov. Tim Walz and flip management of the state Senate to win the trifecta of the governor’s workplace and each legislative chambers for the primary time in eight years. Democrats now plan to run on the sweeping agenda they enacted. Both events are relying on presidential coattails in down poll contests by which management of the state House and a flippable U.S. House seat are at stake.

Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who enjoys assist throughout social gathering traces, is anticipated to simply win a fourth time period in opposition to a little-known and barely funded GOP challenger, Joe Frasier.

Joshua Allan, a 36-year-old voter from the Minneapolis suburb of Oak Grove, who works within the constructing trades, stated the presidential race might be aggressive. During a go to to the state Capitol for a rally in opposition to a proposed state Equal Rights Amendment that was organized by anti-abortion and conservative religion teams, Allan cited an inventory of financial and social points he thinks may swing the state to Trump. He stated there’s no approach he’d vote for Biden, citing his document and age, 81.

___

Follow the AP’s protection of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

Copyright
© 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This materials will not be revealed, broadcast, written or redistributed.